Tuesday , May 18 2021

Brexit's price: 66 billion pounds and the upcoming recession

Damage to the British economy due to Brexit has so far cost £ 66 billion ($ 86 billion), and Britain has left the limits of a new recession, economic data released last week showed.

Analyst analyst S & P Global Ratings Boris Glassa showed that falling pounds, rising inflation, lower household spending, falling house prices, and weak exports led to a 3% drop in GDP. "It turns into an average lost 6.6 billion pound (in 2016) economic activity in each of 10 quarters of a referendum," Glass said in a research note.

The yellow line represents the British trend of GDP growth. The interrupted line represents "doppelganger" data, to which Brexit did not influence.
S & P global rating

The graph shows your Glass budget results. He took the actual data (yellow line) and compared them with the statistical "doppelganger" economy (dotted line). Dupelganger consisted of a weighted basket of countries whose economies were comparable to the UK. Thus, for example, the US is labeled as 28.4% of models, Hungary with 24.1%, Canada with 21.3% and so on. The mix produced a trend of GDP growth that was almost identical to the British – by the end of 2016 when the effect of Brexit was on.

Fixed investment declined in the United Kingdom after the vote on Brexit, but this was not done in doppelganger countries.
S & P global rating

At that point, after the referendum on the EU, the UK GDP slowed down, while the twin continued its growth trend.

The lost 66 billion pounds implies that the country is poorer than £ 1,000 per person on average than would have been the case.

The fall also appears in real-life data. The weighted average of the procurement manager's index – closely related to GDP growth – implies that British GDP was exactly zero in the first quarter, according to analyst Pantheon Macroeconomics Samuel Tombs.

"In the past, the weighted average PMI in the first quarter as a whole points to a quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in the fourth quarter," he told his clients. "These surveys were mostly overburdened during the previous high-economic insecurity attacks," he said, as it does not include all economic data.

PMI data suggests that GDP growth in the UK fell to 0% in the first quarter.
Macroeconomics of Pantheon

In global PMI data, the rank of 50 means growth is even. Below it is falling, above is growth. The United Kingdom is just on line with 50, say PMI data. This is a comparative chart of HSBC analysts James Pomeroy and Vardhan Bhatia.

"As we expected, Brexit's concern was listed as a" major cause "that leads to a general level of economic weakness as companies delay spending," customers said. "The only leap came from the labor market that bounced back, as this was a consistent area of ​​the British economy's strength in the last few months."

Great Britain is doing worse than other major economies, HSBC says.

"The disappointing PMI research shows that the UK economy stopped in the first quarter and that the crisis is going to deepen in the coming months," warned Chris Williamson of IHS Markit, a company that publishes PMI data.

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