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After the fall of the dollar, you need to look at three data – 01/12/2019

The wholesale dollar fell to $ 37.35 Thursday, touching the "bottom" of the exchange rate and Central Bank bought $ 20 million, leaving it open new phase exchange and financial issues.

The government has attributed this drop in currency prices to changes in the international financial scenario generated from the assumption that Federal Reserve of the United States This year will not be so aggressive that it will increase the interest rate.

This variant has arrived in Argentina slump pulled out data with a strong decline in activity important items (construction, cars, appliances, etc.) and financial matters were dominated by the power of high interest rates.

The central bank and the government in general today are celebrating the stability of the exchange rate that opens the door to consolidation down for inflation and, therefore, better prospects for planning the improvement of purchasing power of wages and election options.

A silent dollar tends to calm consumer awareness, savers and politicians, and one of the key issues of the start of 2019. until when it may take some time.

There is, at least, three sensitive points follow carefully: how fast is the central charge, how expectations around 2020 collection of pensions.

Guido SandlerisThe president of the central bank assumes responsibility for spreading that the fall in interest rates, for which the production sector has claimed four winds, will be moderately stopped and regulated.

Liquidity Lyrics (Leliq) that the Central Bank is in banks and that it acts as the reference rate on the market at around 58.40% per annum, which is the level that determines, on the other hand, that banks offer rates close to 50% per annum in fixed-term fixed-term deposits.

These rates are high compared to Inflation projections of 30% which has a market for this year and wakes up strong criticism all productive ports.

Volume loan fell by 20% really in the last year and have already started at a very low level.

The total loan is about 13% of GDP, is very low and acts as a strong restriction to emerge from the recession.

But for the Government is a priority goal financial stability and it is filled with a letter with it agreed with the IMF.

Therefore, we need to be aware of how much of a dollar buys the Central and how much the cube is emitted each time it does.

If it is more cramped, the temptation to lower the rate will be greater but also the possible pressure on inflation that is now more constrained by the stability of the exchange rate and A sharp decline in sales.

In the short term, more dollar entry is expected for field exports, and since April, as the Secretary of Finance has sent him, Santiago Bausili, There will also be more bids because the Treasury will sell about $ 10,000 million (silver IMF) to get a pezose.

Bausili raised the magnifying glass to another key point: the length of debt maturity after the election. He claimed that only 2020 Bonar and they are $ 2,500 million, a small number (if the rest of the refinance, from now on) think that Argentina will go unpunished.

The third fact that needs to be considered now is the collection of pensions: in December only 23% increased, significantly below each indicator of inflation.

A collection that depends on the level of employment and pay received by workers is in turn one-third of the total amount collected by AFIP.

In other words, when the Central Bank keeps the market at high rates, it also promotes the collection of taxes in general, and in particular the pension fund.

The government managed to leave the exchange rate and introduce a monetary corset to help lower the Argentinian dollar's dollar.

But now is the time to start disarming commodities triggered by recession and the addition of election time that exacerbates all expectations.

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