In the middle of the wing electoral In particular, Argentines are watching closely what could happen to the price of the dollar in the coming months.
The dlar “blue”, the informal price of the North American currency, remains “ironed out” below $ 145 since February, and something similar is happening with bag for a dollar and with the dollar accounted for by liquidation, obtained by buying and selling bonds and shares.
Despite this unusual situation, the official exchange rate continues to move in line with inflation and accumulates growth of close to 9% in 2021. The dollar remains in the midst of a climate of “tense calm,” framed by a tight grip on exchange and in a context where there is no real foreign exchange inflow.
“It’s hard to predict what will happen to the price dlar blue because it is a market with little information and transparency, but surely the economic authorities will generate some kind of intervention. Something that is destined to soften the price correction so that it no longer becomes news and the gap remains stable, ”explained Gustavo Quintana, an analyst at PR Changes, in a dialogue with iProfessional.
Why blue is “ironed”
“Today there is a gap between officers and blue is 56% and there is no reason to think that it could decrease in the short term. The solidarity dollar acts as the lowest price for the price blue: If the latter were worth less than solidarity, retail demand for savings would be focused on the informal market and, given the small volume, the price would rise rapidly, ”said Claudio Caprarulo, chief economist at Analytica Consultores.
In this regard, the economist adds that while the Government continues to intervene and retain MEP (if dlar), produces the possibility of increasing the price for blue “It seems limited, if it is possible to arbitrate between the two markets.”
In other words, it opens up the possibility of buying dollars at a place where it is cheap and selling it at one where it is expensive.
Since peaking at $ 195 in October last year, the financial dollar (count on liquidation) has since fallen 25% to about $ 146 since the end of January. It even reached $ 140 in late 2020 and early this year. Free dollar (financial and blue) is below the “solidarity” exchange rate, which arises from the application of land tax and withholding of profits to the official retail quotation, resulting in a quotation exceeding USD 160.
“Because it’s a small market, a variation blue it can happen on the basis of certain operations or, as is also expected, that demand for pesos falls seasonally in March and April, putting pressure on the dollar price, ”adds Caprarulo.
In this sense, Natalia Motyl, an economist from Fundacin Libertad y Progreso, believes that blue it has declined in recent weeks due to “purchases of dollars by the Central Bank, which used them to buy bonds and supply spot liquidation sites”.
In this way, analysts point out that these official interventions are the ones that generate a certain stability in the stock market, which is transferred to the informal market and its value. Although this negatively affects the balance of monetary authority.
Added to this is the fact that grain and oilseed exporters are making record sales that have not been recorded since January. The inflow of these currencies also serves to calm the market.
The payment of wealth tax, which expires at the end of March and is paid in installments, implies the sale of dollars for the purpose of fulfilling that obligation. Which will also affect the price of the informal currency.
A factor that is also weighing at the moment is that the dollar is “weakening” in the rest of the world due to the announcement of the United States ’expansive fiscal policy, aimed at mitigating the impact of the pandemic crisis.
To this must be added that there was an overdraft (overreaction) last October blue, which has been adjusted downwards in recent months. That is, the price of the informal dollar “calms down” to the value it should really have at this point, rather than to the high and “out of scale” $ 195 it reached last year. The market is estimated to price blue start climbing when elections.
“One of the most challenging options will be to keep this exchange rate depressed until reserves are kept. The other is a gradual relaxation of sales, the arrival of more reserves and a gap in elections be sharper there and suppress tension, ”experts speculate.
According to the slogan iProfessional, according to the Libertad y Progreso a blue close to $ 200 by the end of the year.