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Dangerous contradiction: cheap dollar and country risk above 700 points



The central bank has made it clear that the dollar has a political side that surpasses the economyNot only did he not pick it up on the lower line of the water line, but bought a lower amount than usual, which could improve its closing price. It seems to be more comfortable with a delayed course, even if incubating the same problem that led to the current crisis.

Delay in exchange will prevent him from gradually leaving the program in the future. Because debts do not recover in stages, but at the moment. A close range may be a burning fire.

All of a sudden, country risk increased by 0.72% and crossed the upper limit of 700 points. And this is a real measure of how investors see the economy. Everything else is the scenery that surrounds the central actor: credibility of investors in Argentine debt bonds.

Bonar 2024, a reference value in dollars, lost 0.24%, while US Treasury prices rose in price and reduced yield to 2.69%, Argentina has a big problem here because it can not even use the fact that the United States has dropped from raising interest rates.

carry a trade (sell dollars to bet that the weight has used high rates) it's yo-yo where the gain in the local currency always returns the dollar, While the euphoria of profit will be stimulated by the Central Bank, which nationalized the system to absorb, through liquidity letters, all fixed terms, the dollar will remain postponed. But why do not people buy bonds in dollars, using a 10% annual return rate? The answer is that most of the weight handlers in fixed terms and in Lecapu is in the starting line for going out and buying the dollar when it's time to change.

Changing the rules of the game in Vaca Muerta, which hit investment firms that were subsidized to start making deposits, fell badly abroad. In order to increase the billing and reduce the deficit, the government has changed the rules of the game, adding to the risk of the country.

Dihotomy between bonds in high yields and cheap dollars is the inconsistency of the scheme, because the devaluated dollar means a prosperous economy and a relationship with parity, that there is no interest in investing in this successful country. The scheme is equally unsatisfactory as the team building with ten great players and goalscorer without a goal.

On the wholesale market, the dollar opened 10 cents lower than the previous day The Central came out to keep it at the end by buying just $ 20 million to $ 37.58 instead of the usual $ 50 million. The currency reacted, but closed 22 cents to $ 37.53, and reached 33 cents to the bottom of the currency component.

This is that the Central has another problem that limits it to buying the dollar. Every time you buy currencies, free your weights, and it seems that Leliq exhausts your ability to aspirate. Actually, he changed the system. You will now announce the amount you will set for each bid. He wants to have more control over the monetary base.

He placed $ 160 billion in a bid Wednesday, which not only allowed him to absorb $ 5 billion, but allowed him to cut interest rates. The cutting rate, the highest rate, fell 0.74 points to 55.19% per year, and the average rate fell 0.76 points to 54.89% per annum.

In banks and exchange houses, the dollar was sold 6 cents more expensive at $ 38.59. "Blue" has lost 50 cents he won on the previous day and was $ 38.25.

Reserves increased by 39 million to $ 66.406 million, in spite of the fact that gold and the euro rose 48 million dollars abroad. In addition, we need to add a purchase of 20 million and take away 82 million for payments to international organizations and Brazil.

The stock market has experienced euphoria on world markets when it is confirmed that the Federal Reserve has confirmed that the interest rate will not increase and speaks of its concern for the world economy.

With a job below what was usual until 15 days ago, S & P Merval increased by 1.49% with operations of USD 592 million.

Banks continued to strengthen the index. Supervisors (+ 4.19%) and French (+ 2.54%) were the most interesting. Increase in oil by more than 2% influenced the increase in Petrobras (+ 1.77%) and YPF (+ 1.11%).

Tenant, from the Techint group, rose 2.29 percent. The company was not affected by the reduction in gas subsidies earned from Vaca Muerta because TecPetrol is a company that manages the deposit and has no shares on the stock exchange. Only debt bonds issued abroad.

Argentine ADRs, holdings of shares listed on Wall Street, nearly increased. Banco Supervielle (+ 3.8%) and MercadoLibre (+ 3.1%) went best.

Thursday will end the moon and there will be a protection operation. Weight is a winner and the dollar seems to be sentenced to the end of January under the floating composition, a story that can be repeated in February or at least in the month. The second story that has great chances of tracking is the increased risk of the country. Investors do not want Argentine debt bonds, although there is a higher demand for securities from developing countries.


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