Bilateral red with Brazil last year is halved, announced a new report Ecolatina pointing out that in the last month of 2018, "the surplus in commercial trade with Brazil was $ 260 million, first since 2014"And the letter adds: "It was a product of strong export growth and a new collapse of imports".
"In this way, the year is completed by decreasing the red color of the order of. T 52 percent, from about -8,200 million dollars in 2017 to -3,900 million in 2018, is explained by an increase in exports by 17 percent and a drop in imports by -15 percent, "the report adds, adding:" However, as in other variables of the Argentine economy, the dynamics were not homogeneous throughout the year, so it is worth remembering how the deficit has been reduced. ",
then, The activity was evaluated in the first, second, third and fourth quarters of 2018 as well as outlook for 2019, "In the first quarter of 2018, local activity marked strong progress, and the exchange rate continued to appreciate, so the purchasing power in foreign currencies was high," he stressed and continued: "In this context, the bilateral exchange has repeated the closing dynamics 2017 ".
In this connection, it was stated that "import increased significantly on exports" and that "a deficit is difficult, ranging from $ -1,700 million in the first quarter of 2017 to -200 million in 2018." As for the second trimester, Ecolatin has stated that "the product of the jump of exchange plus local activity that has begun to show signs of deterioration, imports stagnated".
"On the other hand, the Brazilian economy has begun to strengthen its growth, and despite the strike of a truck that had been hit by a neighboring country, the deficit in bilateral trade fell in that period, specifically in the same country of $ -2000 million in April-June 2017. to -1,700 million in 2018, "a document published on Wednesday said.
Analyzing the third quarter, it was noted that the recovery of bilateral accounts was pronounced. "Despite the fact that the Brazilian economy was marked by the uncertainty of the election, the rise in competitiveness in the foreign exchange market and the recession of the local economy caused collapse of imports and a significant increase in exports," he added. in that context the balance was balanced in September and accumulated a deficit of $ -400 million in the quarter, saving 83 percent compared to red in the same period of 2017. "
Concerning the closure of 2018, "favorable" trends have been highlighted, according to Ecolatin's report, "For example, the Brazilian economy has left its own election uncertainty and slightly better its march, and despite the nominal quarterly appreciation, the dollar remained in a competitive zone." As a result, due to high interest rates, domestic demand continued. As a result, the quarterly trade balance was close to reaching $ 200 million, which implies a significant improvement over the last quarter of 2017, the product being receded to decline in import and sales recovery, writing.
Finally, the document refers to the prospects for the current year. Looking ahead to 2019, "the dynamics will be more similar to that in the second half of 2018 than in the first half, the product of growing Brazil (…), Real, which will remain stable in the nominal amount (…) and the Argentine economy that remains "In this context, we plan to close this year with a bilateral trade deficit close to balance and that it is so low since 2014," concludes Ecolatina's analysis.