Inflation expectations for the month of November were reduced to less than half of what was recorded in October, the month in which it exceeded 5%. Price deceleration is first explained by the stabilization of the exchange rate and the recession. In October, the dollar's $ 5 dollar slump did not prevent rising prices at a monthly rate higher than the annual inflation rate in neighboring countries.
"October was another month of high inflation: our retail price review showed a monthly growth of 5.2%, as October 2017 was a month of low inflation, year-on-year change declined from 39.2% in September to 44.6% in October "said Camilo Tiscornia, economist C & T Asesores Econmicos, who explained that" a large part of the price increase due to regulated prices, in fact, the items sensitive to the exchange rate rose less than in September. "
Tiscornia data disagrees with only 3 dimes of 5.5% of monthly inflation, estimated by consultant Orlando Ferreres, whose calculations point to the fact that the basic inflation in October was 4.6% per month, or slightly more than half the 8.6% September – when it was the product of the last exchange rate, inflation rose and reached 6.5% as compared to Indec.
Eco Go estimates that inflation in October dropped to 5.8%, while for Elypsis it was kept at 6%, closer to the figure of the previous month.
The residential area was the highest growth in October (8.7% for Ferreres and 9.3% for Tiscorni), followed by clothing, transportation and links – where the impact increases more than 10% of the fuel price.
Meanwhile, regulated goods and services "increased by 7.8% as a result of increased gas, transportation and fuel, and prepaid medicines," Ferreres report said.
In the same way that basic inflation fell to slightly more than half of September and October, the treasury is convinced that price declines at a general level will repeat the slump and fall to 2.3% in December. I got the money from Sandleris's money.
"It looks a bit optimistic, but not impossible, basically it's feasible because there is not much increase on the regulated price side and because of the exchange rate, even the increase in fuel is lower than in October," synopsis Camilo Tiscornia.
In fact, according to the latest Market Research Expectations (REM) of the Central Bank, the market reported inflation expected in November with an average of 3.1% per month. In November, it is expected that the subway will increase by 8% to $ 13.50, the taxi fare will drop by 18%, and the Technical Certificate of the vehicle will increase by 23%, and by December the market is expected to increase prices. slow down to 2.8% per month, which would mean closure in 2018 with annual inflation of 47.5%, the highest since 1991.
Copyright The Politics Online SA 2018.
Do not cut or paste notes on the web, you have the ability to redistribute them using our tools.