Is this a measure for further tightening monetary policy and selling dollars from the treasury would help streamline local markets to the October elections, although this is true volatility due to political uncertainty is still apparent as local analysts from Wall Street agree.
In that frame S & P Merval Stock Exchange and Argentine Market Index (BYMA) exceeded the trend of currency growth (the wholesale dollar fell by almost 2%) and advanced 1.2%, to 33,933.08 points, driven by increases in financial and energy documents.
up to 5.7% (Banco Macro) in Argentine ADRs operating in New York also supported the rise in local market prices, in the midst of a favorable day for global markets.
So the main promotions at the local square were actions Banco Macro (+ 3.9%); Central Port (+ 3.2%); and Banco Francés (+ 3.1%).
Among the roles Grupo Financiero Galicia (+ 1.7%), Grupo Supervielle (+ 1.9%) and Pampa Energia (+ 1.4%) agreed on more than 40% of the total volume (USD 788.9 million).
With regard to official measures, BCRA announced on Thursday that it will extend the zero growth of the monetary base by the end of the year and the non-intervention stock market will grow at a monthly rate of 1.75% in the second quarter of the year. These measures will result in the target of monetary base at the end of the year by 10% compared to the original targets.
The BCRA has pointed out that it will cut high inflation without hindering its weight to devalue more than the dollar after devaluing more than 50% last year.
"While we (…) expect the currency to tread slightly upward in the coming days, we should see higher stability (benchmark) rates for Leliq before entering (the Argentine market), especially because of political noise could also affect local assets " Morgan Stanley reported.
On the other hand, the government said it would sell USD 60 million a day in the US from funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program and from April issue of a US $ total. 9,600 million by the end of the year.
Those changes "should be sufficient to streamline the potential sources of volatility in the months preceding the presidential elections", is reported in the SBS Group report.
Other analysts were more cautious. "Strong monetary policy and dollar revenues from the IMF support, but instability has already increased due to the risk of the election, says the latest report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
"There will be more pressure to cover currency if President Cristina de Kirchner, who is considered less friendly to the market than other potential candidates, announces that he will participate (…) Candidates must be released by June 22, but should be clear by the May ", he added.
Meanwhile, on Friday, S & P Merval accumulated a 2.7% gain in weight in the week, pointing to growth in this period Ternium (+ 9.5%); and Pad Mirgora (-7.3%).
Bonds and country risk
In the fixed income segment, Bonds denominated in CERs (inflation), with an increase of almost 2%, were highlighted. the day after INDEC reported that CPI accelerated to 3.8% in February, to accumulate 6.8% in the first two months and 51.3% over the past 12 months.
Faced with this inflation scenario, PR13 (+ 1.8%); Discount (+ 1.5%); Par (+ 1.5%); and Cuasipar (+ 1.1%).
"We are in a complex political context, the election calendar seems complicated, for which the government will attack the volatility of the exchange rate at all costs, so expect to try to keep the foreign exchange market under control – as much as possible – and the local currency exchange rates will be attractive ", said Pablo Castagna, Director of Personal Portfolio.
As a result, with bonds linked to CER, bonds that adjust to BADLAR, such as PR15 (+ 1.9%), had a good ending week, in line with the tightening of monetary policy by BCRA. .
On the other hand, Lecap ended up with a tax rate of 44%, while Leliq's auctions showed an average rate of 63.744%, which increased by 585 points a week.
In dollar bonds, the day was from the highest to the lowest. "They started the day they all played, but they lost their strength and shut down just & quot; 75 cents, They commented on the market.
For example, The discount increased by 1.3%; Bonar for the year 2020 added 0.3%; while Bonar 2024 was 0.2%. Over the course of the week, these securities reached an average increase of 3%.
In front of the new scenario, The country's risk – measured by JP.Morgan – dropped by 13 units to 724 basis points, which is close to the monthly minimum of March 1 (718 points).