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Summer star: why the stock market in January grew by 20% in dollars

During 2018 Argentine property was part of a growing emerging market, punished by capital outflows with expectations of US interest rates increase. Moreover, they led the group, while Argentine peso had devalued slightly more than 100%. The stock market created this stock turbulence loss of 50% of Merval's value during 2018.

So far, in January, the month that left the wheel today, it marked the official closeness, the leading stock exchange S & P Merval) rose to 36,039 points. As for the starting point of the year, when the total number of private shares reached 30,292 units, the increase was 18.9%. In the dollar this jump was 19.7 percent.

Analysts point out that in the current context of "good financial news" that consists of a stable exchange rate, low interest rates and country risks for most of the month, shows downs, Merval figures stand out as a star So far this summer, mostly motivated by external factors.

Yesterday's wheel crunch climbed by 1.5% on Tuesday, with headlines rising at Supervielle Group (4.19%), Alatu (3.49%), ByMA (2.83%) and France (2 , 54%) and Tenaris (2.29%), according to the Argentine stock exchange and the market.

Meanwhile, in the foreign market, Argentine ADRs, the stock certificates listed on Wall Street show a similar increase, with Supervielle (3.8%) and MercadoLibre (3.1%).

"Argentina is associated with the improvement of the market seen in the international scenario. January for developing countries was generally a good start to the year which triggered the announcement of the US federal reserve, "he explained. Fernando Baer, ​​an analyst at Quantum Finanzas, The latest editions of US monetary authorities generate expectations on the international market in 2019 with a slight increase in reference rates.

In that sense, Improving conditions for emerging markets had an additional factor for Argentina in the presumption of Jair Bolsonaro for the president of Brazil, according to Christian Buteler, from Buteler Servicios Financieros, The analyst expects the Bolsonaro effect to have a positive impact on the region after 2018, in which Latin America was one of the most endangered areas.

Among other variables, a positive international impact can be observed in the downward trend that showed the country's risk in the first weeks of January, despite the fact that the last three wheels increased the premium applied to government bonds. "In general, there is a tendency of negative correlation between the country risk and Merval's price: when one goes up, the others weighs down and vice versa, "commented Amilcar Collante of CESUR (Center for Economic Studies of the South).

The economist considered that the country's lower risk favored large companies having access to international markets. Many of them are listed on S & P Mervalu. "We are now in the process of returning to the middle, the market at the time was expecting a negative side and now it does the same as above," added Collante.

Analysts do not rule out the possibility of a reversal because the political factor, that is, the presidential election, begins to seek more. "On a domestic scale, macroeconomic problems have not disappeared," Buteler summarizes, "apart from the kind of shifting, there were no major changes."

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