The value of the dollar concludes with a sincere weakness the first month of 2019 currency yielded more than 2% and The re-emergence of the Central Bank as a buyer Forex had zero repercussion in the evolution of the kind of change.
Is that the market much more nourished by liquidation export, with the leading offer of record wheat harvest, plus re-entry of resources that are passed on to pesos use high interest rates and very low estimates of domestic stocks and bonds, determine that the dollar has little demand in a a square that works around $ 800 million a day, a rare volume for the first month of the year.
Diego Martínez Burzaco, an analyst at MB Inversiones, said that "the external financial situation is what it givesand ejaculation of capital inflows into the region, mostly in Brazil and spilled in Argentina ".
In the branches National Bank the US currency is being sold 37,90 USD, with a drop of 50 cents to 1.3 percent. This is the lowest price since December 3 last year. IN average the banks of the city of Buenos Aires 38.05 pcs.
As it happened in January, the Central Bank bought foreign currencies on the wholesale market, an initiative that has not happened since June 2017. $ 50 million at an average price of 37,0896 pcs. Thus, in the first month of the year, accumulated purchases of USD 560 million, within the margin imposed by agreement to wait with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), about $ 700 million a month.
The monetary entity proposed to repurchase the currency as soon as the wholesale price is below floor zone "non-intervention", this is this Thursday 37,86 USDand $ 37,886 for February 1.
from Research for traders "The BCRA's goal is to move the course within the free floating band will change and therefore the market expects the entity to be defined between today and tomorrow if you increase the amount of daily purchases of USD 50 million 150 million USD to create greater demand for foreign currency. "
Martínez Burzaco said Infobae that "the Central Bank must consider the use." additional tools for keeping the course within a zone without intervention, such as permission banks gradually transform their exposure currency within its net worth, which is today 0 percent. "
Martinez Burzaco pointed out that "Central" accelerate lower interest rates and do a fine surgical job to measure Market sensitivity, so Fixed time supplies Do not go to the dollar in a significant way, "especially" in a year of election in which at some point dollarization will accelerate portfolio ".
while have been reduced by more than 4 percentage points in January below 55% per annum, they are still high enough stop reactivation economics and they are ballast for eventual climb dollar, a conservative position that can not compete with such returns in the local currency within that framework. At the same time, high rates and "calmness of the course" today are crucial for slow down inflation.
Economist MB Inversiones also noted "TheTate's reserve requirements banks, because the BCRA could to open such liquidity in order to allow for a reduction in the price of money and cease paying some lace. "From coming Guido Sandleris central bank allows banks to integrate the pipes with LELIQ encourage them to continue collecting deposits. This way, "banks will return their role of natural financial intermediation," said Martínez Burzaco.
IS LI DOLAR?
Uneven evolution of the exchange rate of recent months, today a 2% below the free floating band. add tension when it is considered that Inflation maintained a significant pace despite gradual lowering.
The green card has reached record September 28, from $ 41.85 for public sale and $ 41.25 in wholesalea movement that many analysts considered excessive. Since then, in the last four months the dollar has lost 10%, while average retail prices rose by almost 14 percent in that period.
Therefore, the dollar in Argentina lost purchasing power by 21.1% in the period from October to January, when all other financial alternatives offered positive income.
Of course competitiveness of exchange It does not just depend on the dollar. appreciation of other currencies commercial partners in relation to the North American currency mitigates this alleged "delay in the exchange rate" limited to a very short-term period.
For example, in Brazil, the dollar has lost 9%, from 4.01 reales from September 28 to 3.65 this Thursday. In this respect, Argentine peso monitored the currency of its main trading partner.
Nor should we lose sight of the fact that the price of banknotes in Argentina today is 90% higher than a year ago, when the month of January 2018 was $ 19.65 and $ 19.93. who Inflation rate almost doubled annually 47 percent.
According to the Multilateral Real Currency Index (ITCRM). T Central Bankthe current competitive advantage of the Argentinean pile is similar to January 2014 and September 2011, and a 15% more than the one achieved on December 17, 2015, when the management of Mauricia Macrija eliminated exchange control or "cepo".