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Home / argentina / The fourth electoral poll after the closing of the list: improves the economic climate, Mauricio Macri rises – 30.06.2019.

The fourth electoral poll after the closing of the list: improves the economic climate, Mauricio Macri rises – 30.06.2019.



If the frozen image is fixed, the Kirchnerists can celebrate. If you look at evolution, there is hope for the macros. bugle This weekend he agreed with a new national poll, which confirms Maurizio Macri's improvement, though his career is still behind. Research is Gustavo Córdoba & Asociados, one of the consulting firms that made the biggest difference in favor of Fernández.

It is fourth survey He could see these newspapers after the closing of the census, at midnight on the feverish Saturday, March 22nd repeats itself in two themes: The formula for Together for Change is growing but continues under the front of the Front of All, especially for the PASS. Previous works Clarin has released from Synopsis, Trespuntozero and Federico González & Asociados, In parallel with this, three more researchers who sought anonymity and measure on both sides of the cracks also confirmed the photo and trend.

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The latest work by Gustavo Córdobe (a consultant working for Peronist Cordovan and other bases of opposition) includes research 1,200 cases (between 26 and 28 June), across the country, with a margin of error of +/- 2.83. The company has produced a full monthly report and therefore provides a good comparison for the number display.

Gustavo Córdoba warns in the "general analysis" of the research:

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

– "In June, the approval of the administration (national government) significant recovery: More than 7 points, reaching 41%, while refusal fell to almost 55%. "

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

– "Optimism about the economy's progress continues to grow, held in the last three months. 42% of respondents believe that the economy will be better in one year, while 38% believe it will be worse (by 45% in May).

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

– "The positive image of President Macri is on the 40th%, and the negative dropped to 51. In case Cristina Fernández, owner 39% positive and 52% negative ".

As far as the election context is concerned, there are several comparisons that show: a. improvement for officalism, although today remains under Kirchnerism, in an open-air scenario.

According to Gustavo Córdoba, at the beginning of the year, a "Government Change", against only 21.4% of those who wanted it "Continuity", Today, the first parameter dropped to 46.2% and the second to 28.5%.

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

After asking "intent to vote for the president for the universe", there is a invasive parity between Frente de Todos (33.5%) and Juntos but El Cambio (32.5%). In May, when the alliances had other names, Kirhnerism (as "PJ / Unidad Ciudadana") was 38% and we have changed to 28%.

When the question for formulas, with the name and surname, Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández reach 40.50%, against 32.90% Mauricia Macri and Miguel Pichetta: 7.6 points difference, One less than the research of Trespuntozero (8.6%: 42% to 33.4%), similar to the gap between Federico González (the difference of 7.3%: 37.3% to 30%) and the most significant of which is the synopsis 4.1 difference: 40.3% to 36.2%).

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

The same Gustavo Cordoba, in May, when measured as now Roberto Lavagna as PJ and K candidate, had Fernandez in 44.3% and Macri (still without Pichetta) in 27.5%. So for a month, the difference was reduced by 9.2 points: from 16.8 to 7.6 in June.

As far as a ballotage, again the same movie, according to this consultant: Fernandez is still worse, but with Macri-Pichetto cuttingIn June, the distance to the second round is 4.4 points: 46.5% versus 42.1% of the ruling party. Close to the limit of error. In May there was a difference of 7.9: 44.6% compared to 36.7%.

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

National Research by Gustavo Córdobe & Asociados. June 2019.

Gustavo Córdoba points out in his report:

– "The voting scenario reflects the reason why the government needs to improve the second round of the first round, which is much more competitive when first-choice voters must choose between Alberta Fernandez and Maurizio Macri. Fernández and Macri would be in the technical drawing situation in the voting scriptsince Macri is a candidate who better capitalizes on the voices of Lavender and the Expert.

– "No contest in. T STEP forces us to think if it is the same will turn into a potential first round for voters, and to what extent the spaces can keep their position between one and the other choice.


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