Sunday , May 9 2021

The market expects inflation of 28.7% and dollar to 48.3 USD by 2019



It should be noted that research participants expect that, in relation to recent registrations, general inflation and basic inflation will decrease in the coming months to 2.0% per month in both cases.

This is stated by REM "For 2019, the inflation rate in the previous survey increased by 1.2 percentage points, both for the general level and for basic inflation, to 28.7% and 26.9%. By 2020, inflation expectation was 19.9% ​​i.a. (+0.7ppm) and 18.2% for the core (+0.5ppm). According to the first inflation forecast for 2021, the REM prognosis reached 15.0% i.a. and 14.0% i.a. for the core. "

On the other hand, it's designed "The change in real GDP (GDP) for 2019 is -1.2%, as in the previous survey, while in 2020, economic growth is expected to be 2.5% and 2.5% for 2021. "

Meanwhile, the nominal exchange rate prognosis has fallen in relation to the previous survey and are expected to be in January 2019 "It averages $ 39.3 per dollar and arrives in December 2019 to $ 48.3 per dollar."

As a result, for Leliq in Pesos an average rate of 57% for January and a downward path to 38% in December 2019 was estimated.

Finally, the participants projected a primary fiscal deficit of $ 40 billion in 2019 and $ 170 billion by 2020.


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