The current account balance has fallen to 59.59%. The reduction was transferred to a check on the stock market and, with less power, on personal loans
The drop in rates that accelerated to the Central Bank this week began, to a lesser extent, to shift the public. Over the past three days, the monetary organization took 56.60% to 54.89% of the average salary paid to Leliqs and motivated banks to cut 171% off the interest rates charged by the current account companies. , on average at 59.59% per year, which is the lowest level since the end of August last year.
The results BCRA defines daily for its liquidity letters is the monetary policy rate, which also serves as a reference to the financial system. So, at each move this rate is up or down, the fastest line of credit is the most dynamic change.
Actually, the interest rate on the current account had a strong jump between September and October when the then President of the Central, Luis & Toto & # 39; Caputo took the rate to 60%, and later when Guido Sandleris faced severe monetary adjustments with rates up to 73% per annum. Thus, the costs that companies have paid to recover unencrypted cash from their current accounts exceed 78% per annum.
Now, according to the BCRA average, the rate is 59.59%, which is the lowest level since August 30, when it was 47.2% of the manual. It should be noted that this number is the annual nominal rate (TNA) since the total financial cost (CFT) is about 76%. Of course, this number, in the midst of difficult monetary adjustments, has reached over 100% per year.
A current account agreement, generally known as "disclosed," is the line most commonly used by small and medium-sized companies to finance their daily cash. With the rise in the stock of these loans, the first three months of monetary adjustment have recorded a decline of $ 29,781 million, and so far it has remained stable in January.
One of the main factors that accelerated the fall in rates this week was the change made by the Monetary Agency in the way that Leliqi called the tender every day. Strictly speaking, at the beginning of each circle, reporting the indicative amount to be invested and then effectively allocating that amount. No weight or weight. Previously, on the other hand, that was the end put more money than was indicated, and the drop in rates was very dispersed.
What does this change mean and how does it affect the rate? Mostly because banks are now offering lower rates, afraid not to be out of court and not to make them pay their bills. "BCRA has changed the offer method, now announcing the amount and how banks do not want to stay out there, the rate of endogenous decline more quickly," explains Santiago López Alfaro of Delphos Investment's partner.
Where this impact affected the call market for the first time, loans between one-day banks, which are the liquidity thermometer of the financial system. On Friday, that rate was 53.21% on average, while yesterday it worked around 46% annually.
What prompted the monetary agency to accelerate the decline in rates was the nominal fall in the dollar, which until Monday this week had more to do away from the non-intervention zone and did not even respond to the purchase of BCRAs. During the week, with Leliqs' auctions, it's injected a little less than 79,000 million pcs and remains within the goal of the zero growth of the Monetary Base to close another month with respect.
Thus, with more weight on the market and lower payoff, the dollar did not have to react for a long time to a positive impact.
Likewise, the rate paid by small and medium-sized companies to check the discount on the stock market in Buenos Aires was followed by a trend that marked the Central. According to the Daily Report on the Argentine securities market where these instruments operate, yesterday's discount rate for the guaranteed 30-day wait was about 43.26% per annum and 43.10 for 60-day maturity, which is a low rate of more than one percentage point in compared to the previous week.
In the ranks of the family, part of the falling rate began to be passed on to the cost of personal loans, albeit in a much younger way. According to the latest data from BCRA, as of January 29, the average rate of these loans was 63.2%, almost at the same level as in previous days, but nearly two points lower than it was charged 10 days ago.
"In lines like personal loans, we have to wait for the rate reduction to consolidate before we transfer them to clients. He is always sensitive to changes, but not as sensitive as those in the short term, "they explain from a private bank.
By the time it is down
In the city, the decline in rates will continue in the short term, but not as aggressive as it was in this week. "We need to see that price and transport increases have an impact on inflation. It is still not quite clear that this is happening," says the head of the local banks table. "That's what it's going to define to keep the rate falling steadily," he adds.
The external context seems to play in favor of local property. Although it was almost rejected that federal reserves would not change the rate yesterday, its confirmation gave a new impulse to bonds and bonds in the garbage. This increases the pressure on the dollar and can give the Monetary Agency more air to continue lowering rates, without fear of impact on the course.
Anyway, and although rates are at very high levels, this week's cuts have started to be passed on to families and businesses, something crucial for the productive sector to start raising head.
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