New Predictive Model Developed by Ecologists at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and Climate Scientist at the University of Washington suggest that climate change may allow joint swords to expand its growing range north to the main northeastern metropoles, exacerbating conditions for millions of people with plague fever and asthma.
Plant Ecologist Christina Stinson at UMass Amherst, led by a research team that has been studying this plant for over a decade – particularly as it responds to an elevated amount of carbohydrate2 levels – she collaborated with the climate modeler and the author of Michael Case in UW on this project. Details appear online in the journal PLOS One.
They pointed out that although weeds are expected to expand the weed range, this could be moderated by the plant's own sensitivity to climate variability. For example, they note that in their analysis, the ragweed negatively correlates with a very low or very high annual precipitation variability, "pointing to general sensitivity to extreme precipitation" as well as at extreme temperatures, the authors note. Stinson adds that this might be important uncertain; "If it changes and smells northeast, it would be less hospitable," she says.
"One of the reasons why we chose studying ragweed is because of its implications for human health." Pollen is the primary allergen to the symptoms of feverish fever during the summer and fall in North America, so it affects many people, "notes a herbal ecologist.
In order to better understand how climatic changes can affect the distribution of common ragweed, Stinson and Case have built the maximum entropy, Maxent's predictive model that uses climatic and bio-climatic data and observations across the eastern United States. They used data from the Danish Global Information Biodiversity Information Facility, a project that provides hundreds of million records of species around the world, along with plant records from the notes of UMass Amherst.
Stinson says, "We have zoomed in to the 700 data points for ragweed from all over North America and paired with this information with another database that determines the climate in each of these exact locations. Then we used climate models to spin on time could be expected. "
The authors also underlined: "After building and testing our model, we have projected a potential future joint distribution of superheroes using a package of 13 global climate models under the two future greenhouse gas scenario in the middle and the end of the century.In addition to providing geo-referenced points of potential future expansion, measure confidence by estimating the number of global climate models that agree. "
The model suggests that in the central Florida, the southern mountains of Appalachian and Northeast Virginia, a "significant contraction" of ordinary Dubrovnik can occur, along with areas of potential expansion on the northern edges of the present distribution, especially in the northeastern United States.
Stinson adds: "What I find quite interesting is not so much that the range of ragweed will expand because it could be expected for weeds, but I wondered where it was most likely to spread and where we could see contractions of the range. be a temporary explosion followed by contractions in the 2070s. "
Researchers point out, "Although other factors and approaches to modeling should be explored, we offer a preliminary insight into where the common ragweed will be the future. Because of the health effects of ragweed, local weed control plates can be well advised to track areas of expansion and potentially increase efforts for eradication. "
Stinson points out, "There are not many such models that tell us where individual species can go under different scenarios." Ecologists work on this type of study for more than one species, but there is always not enough data from around the world, but data of some species is rare. pretty rich, which has made it possible. "