"People in China are likely to surpass the United States in 2100, but China's total GDP may not be as large as the United States in 2100. There is only one possibility that by 2100 the total Chinese population will be less than the United States population."On October 20, at the World Internet Conference held in Wuzhen, Zhejiang, founder and Ctrip President Liang Jianzhang shared the above points.
He believes that the main elements of innovation include: the quantity and quality of talent; talent exchange, the more internal and external talent exchanges, the greater the opportunity for innovation. The root of these elements is population.
"The biggest advantage in China is, of course, the population. Needless to say, our current technological development, which is the biggest advantage other countries cannot reconcile, is the advantage of the population. Liang Jianzhang said that in the next 10 to 20 years, the Chinese population and continue to be Continue to increase, although the population will decrease annually, but with the level of education of the people, the overall quality will increase.
However, Liang Jianzhang also noted that in the long term, China's population is not optimistic in the future.
Speaking about the state of China and the US economy at the end of the century, Liang Jianzhang thinks that "The Chinese will probably outpace the United States in 2100, but China's total GDP may not be as large as the United States in 2100. Those who have studied mathematics and those who have learned multiplication and division know that there is only one conclusion. There is only one possibility that by 2100 the total Chinese population in China will be less than in the United States. "
Liang Jianzhang believes that by 2050, half of China's population may decide to have a second child and 10% to 20% of people choose not to have a child. Compared to the early 1990s, the number of newborns in 2050 may be reduced by three quarters . By 2100, the total Chinese population was about 600 million.
At the same time, according to the current population of 3 million to 4 million people and 1 million immigrants per year, in 2100, China's new population will be less than the United States, totaling about third or fourth place in the world.
"But in the long run, the United States does not have to worry about it. As long as the United States is open, I think the United States will also be a very strong country. Of course, China still has to pay attention to our population and let our young people bear children and maintain. the advantage of our population. ”Liang Jianzhang said at last.
The following is Liang Jianzhang's original speech:
Everyone may have heard my previous speech, I have an innovative formula. Innovative power is actually very simple, there are two elements, the first is that there is a lot of talent, of course talent has a number of talents and quality of talent. There is also talent sharing, internal and external communication. The more communication, the stronger is its innovation. In fact, there is an open population, these two elements. Let's look at these two perspectives, and then everyone thinks my conclusion is whether it's shadows.
From an open perspective, it has to do with tourism, in fact, China is now increasingly open, but the United States is still the most open country in the world. While there is some decline in innovation, it can be seen from the indicators. How many people want to go to the United States? Although the United States is the undisputed world leader in high-tech immigration, the world's smartest people still want to go to the United States, line up with the United States, and immigrate.
The second is the entrance tour, which has something to do with Ctrip. The United States is the largest destination country for inbound tourism in the world, and China is actually far behind in terms of inbound tourism, which is not a topic today. Ctrip, of course, we also have our responsibilities. We have to work hard. We have already traveled with many companies to promote tourism in China. It's an aspect of openness, but overall, it's been around in the US for a long time. Openness is still his most powerful asset. Of course, China's biggest advantage is its population. Needless to say, we are now developing the most technologically advanced, and the advantage that other countries cannot reconcile is the advantage of the population. What is the future of the population? How long will it take? This is the main theme of today.
The population advantage, for at least the next ten to twenty years, is the good news that over the next ten or twenty years, China's population advantage will increase, because China's current population is basically not increasing, because we know that the Chinese population is aging and the annual birth rate is declining , but the quality is still improving.
If you look at the number of young students, there will be a sudden increase in the next ten or twenty years. Therefore, our youth spending, including our innovation, will continue to develop over the next ten or twenty years. But in the long run, if the United States can continue to maintain its openness, the Chinese population will be the greatest hidden danger in the long run. Why do you say that? It's very interesting recently. I went to the economists forum. Everyone will ask the same question. When will China's GDP exceed the United States? Some say it is more pessimistic, that China's GDP per capita will take a long time. Then ask, is 2100 years old? That is, what will be the situation of the Chinese and American economies by the end of this century? Many economists have said that China's total must then exceed the amount of the United States, but GDP per capita must not exceed the United States. It seems to sound right, but today I want to tell you that both are wrong. People in China are likely to surpass the United States in 2100, but China's total GDP may not be as large as the United States in 2100. Those who have studied mathematics and those who have learned multiplication and division know that there is only one conclusion. There is only one possibility that by 2100 the total population of China will be less than the population of the United States.
How can such a situation exist? In 2100 we will see that the average mean age of people is 50 or 60 years. We will see how many people there are in China in 2050. 2050 will be 30 years later. What is the birth rate in China now? Birth rate in China In fact, can anyone in the world see that most people ask a child? You do not want? Only half of them have the will to have children, and only a couple are born a year and a half. Only one and a half there were 10% to 20% of people who were not born, and many immigrated abroad. If that is the case, then the generation will only have 1.2 more than the next generation. The generation is halved and the generation is reduced at a rate that is halved from the previous generation. So many people will be born in 2050? We pulled two generations back. In the early 1990s, there were 15 million Chinese students. If we halved and halved, what is a quarter and a quarter? Less than 5 million people, less than 4 million. Today, more than 3 million people and 4 million people live in the United States, and more than one million immigrants each year in the United States. So by that time, China's newborn population could be smaller than the United States by 2050. By 2100, the total number of people in China could be only 600 million. The US now has more than 300 million yuan and nearly 400 million. By 2100, the United States was very likely to outperform China, so the population of China at that time was not the first, nor the second, perhaps the third and fourth, and there were no Americans. and more. So even if China's per capita GDP was then, I think it's quite possible. The Chinese are very smart and learn well. China's per capita GDP is likely to exceed that of the United States, but total GDP may be less than the United States after 2100.
So I told the Americans, don't worry, China has been strong in the last few decades and in the last two decades, but I emphasize that it will be very strong in the short term. People who invest, people who work on the internet should not be discouraged. We are still very good. The rising phase. But in the long run, the United States doesn't need to worry about it, as long as the United States is open, I think the United States will be a very strong country, too. Of course, China still has to pay attention to our population and let our young people want to have children and maintain the advantage of our population.