Although more and more young people have been warned lately, the coronavirus has been a well-known elderly person for a year who takes great care of himself because Covid infection requires primarily their lives and the lives of chronic patients.
However, without denying the reasons for caution and increased defense, the statistics show something different, they hold other lessons – he points out Rockenbauer Antal.
A physics professor, an honorary professor at BME and Eötvös Loránd University, and a retired scientific advisor at the Natural History Research Center (TTK), says the coronavirus epidemic doesn’t really affect the older age group over 65 as it usually does with public opinion. .
All this, according to the expert, is very important, because in the current, already tense situation, it is very important how realistic the feeling of danger of older and younger age groups is.
I’m not an epidemiologist, but as a physicist I have a lot of experience in processing statistics, so it occurred to me what might be behind all the worrying news; today more than three hundred have died from the coronavirus. In such cases, it is always constantly pointed out that most are elderly and chronically ill. To the extent that this is worth emphasizing, since life is inherent in someone being older, the risk of death is much higher from the very beginning;
He said Rockenbauer Antal index exactly what motivated them to systematize mortality statistics and then look back behind the numerical series to create a credible picture of the real risk of coronavirus infection for different age groups, especially those over 65 years of age. That is, the risk of death, which is a natural part of life, changes as a result of the virus.
As a basis, I used mortality data in the U.S. because really accurate and reliable correlations can only be drawn from really large data samples. In addition, their long-term mortality statistics also show the number of deaths in a given age group. In addition, I compared the number of additional deaths attributed to cases attributed to Covid and compared this with mortality data from previous years.
– explains a physicist whose calculations ultimately showed that there was no such difference: at the age of 65, the risk of death from Covid was twice as high as in those aged 35 to 44. (In the U.S., 300,000 more people died in 2020 than in previous years, which is comparable, though less than the 457,000 deaths officially attributed to Covid.) Especially when we look at the likelihood of deaths growing in direct proportion to age. For example, 16 percent of people over the age of 85 die within a year.
Recent research by Antal Rockenbauer also shows that
every third death attributed to coronavirus would occur, even if the person did not become infected.
The final conclusion, as statistics show, is that the risk of infection really needs to be addressed in the younger age groups, especially in light of current data; they should not have a false sense of security either. Not to mention that the elderly can become infected in the same way as carriers.
“On the other hand, older people should not panic unnecessarily, in return we stay in proportion and based on reality, when we do not underestimate or underestimate the impact of the virus on generations,” the physics professor points out.
(Cover image: a woman wearing a protective mask in front of a store in the capital on April 27, 2020. Photo: Márton Mónus / MTI)