Half and half as intense building activity as early as 2000's. There will be several very strong years (2017-2019) and then the economy as a whole, and the construction market will be very powerful, but only a temporary decline will come in 2020. After that, rapid growth will not return, but also the economy and construction will remain on a stable path of growth – writes today the Progress Market Forecast 2019-2022.
In the case of housing construction, 5 percent of VAT has brought a brief, strong growth that focused on Budapest, Győr-Moson-Sopron, Pest and some other large settlements. 5% of the supply and demand side of VAT was mostly funded by investors. There were apartments where the VAT rebate was over 50 million forints.
With more efficient means, up to ten new homes could be realized from that money. Most of this revitalization is now a perceived lack of capacity, which will surely be over-capacity, "said Dénes Varga, economist, research leader at the Progress of the Construction Market at the Fair. We agree with those who believe that construction, including housing, is strategic areas where Unfortunately, the measures introduced in recent years – not surprisingly – did not change their hopes or did not bring the castle's influence, supporting the figures, "he said.
Although the fixed rate on 1 December 2018 is still valid for low-cost housing completed by 2023, it will not affect the decline in expectations for the first half of 2020, and it is expected that growth will remain at a lower rate.
According to international forecasts, the most developed countries for the growth potential of the Hungarian economy are still stable, but with a reduction in growth paths. According to the forecast analyst, the Hungarian economy will move to a similar footprint. There is no chance that GDP growth will remain at around 4 percent, but the fall in growth rates also means that the country's economic potential is widening.
With a predetermined and concentrated consumption of EU subsidies and the revitalization of the housing market, the government has continually increased the value of construction activity and the number of built-in annual houses.
However, according to proponents, a high rate of growth can not be maintained. A significant decline is expected in 2020, followed by a very modest growth rate. This means that the construction industry is still unable to meet its economic stabilization and balance of trade roles. On the contrary, there are considerably higher cyclical chances than other sectors than in other sectors. The great lack of workforce in the construction industry could be avoided by a more imaginative revitalization policy, just as the temporary overcapacity in 2020 and over the next few years will be over.
What is the forecast of the construction market?
The market forecast of the building is an independent mid-term forecast that provides a detailed analysis of 2019-2022. This is part of a survey that collects Build-Communication publishing industry experts on the state of the construction industry and its prospects.
The "Progress Market Forecast 2019-2022", which for the third time this year, provides seven regions with forecasts, as well as providing counties divided into three groups.
This fall, 339 building experts – architects, designers, and local self-government experts with construction markets completed questionnaires. The time horizon of the survey is 2020 when a major downturn is expected and will only come in the spring of 2019. However, the growth rates for 2019 already confirm the results of the survey.
Respondents in the current poll are still the most optimistic for multinational companies, but expect lower or higher drops of all other customers compared to spring results. Expectations for sub-markets show less optimism in almost all areas, even in the case of well-done housing and household jobs, except for sports and industrial facilities.
The earth is torn
At the regional level, the two endpoints of residential construction are Central and Northern Hungary. In less developed regions practically had no effect on revitalization, but in more developed areas it generated a volatility volume that would be much better avoided.
Long list of shortcomings
As for the housing stock market, the opinion of analysts continues to require revitalization, but the way of revitalization does not serve the purpose of housing policy. It is a serious mistake that there is no goal of housing policy, apart from quantitative targets and adaptation to EU energy saving requirements. Therefore, tools are possible. It was a serious mistake. "Housing maintenance of social housing" was the introduction of 5 percent VAT for four years, which primarily financed the supply and demand investors unlike home use.
Serious mistake is the abolition of a respectable housing requirement that existing housing does not prevent the use of subsidies, an unrealistically high amount of non-refundable allowance for three children. State subsidies for a "government loan for housing care" can not be justified, and a missed idea is to plan a larger number of smaller settlements.
Removing Subsidies for Housing Savings is perhaps the most serious mistake. This allowed subsidies to those who did not have the money to build or buy a new home. It solved the "wealth" of the system. The commonly mentioned argument is that with the savings of housing savings you can not afford a new home, you can only fund renovations. However, renovation of an apartment is an important first step towards improving residential quality, whether it is a new home. Such a change would be acceptable if the use of savings and subsidies granted to non-residents would be difficult, experts say.
They often face the policy of social policy and economic policy of housing policy. In today's practice, this, unfortunately, means that the state is more inclined to ensure that housing policy creates economic losses in economic terms that it does not mean it is not in conflict with the goals of social policy. In fact, the housing policy for which the main goal of building many new homes is to stimulate economic growth is not to focus on top two-tenths of income, but on the sixth medium.
The political goal of the economy remains to consider lagging behind layers and lagging regions, which is important when considering long-term volumes of evolution. This is unfortunate, but it is pretty much assumed that decision-makers will not be able to analyze their experience so far either in the 2000-2009 period or in the current stimulus experiment – the prognosticists say.