Friday , August 6 2021

Oil price growth: and apart from "bibi", who wins what?

Atlantico: In that upset, President Emmanuel Macron explains that "there is a part that depends on me, and there is a part that depends on world prices". 80% of the increase you have today, c is the world's price, that's not me.

Francis Perrin: When quoting numbers, it obviously depends on exactly what these data and reference period are.

If we take the average price of diesel fuel in France, the longest consumed road fuel, at the beginning of October 2017 and early November 2018, the growth of crude oil and petroleum products prices in world markets explains nearly 70% of pump price increases over that period.

For unleaded premium 95, the same calculation is slightly less than 80%.

On the other hand, if we look at the period from the beginning of 2018, the responsibility for increasing the tax on the price increase on the pump is 60% for diesel and unleaded 95.

It should be noted that these calculations slightly underestimate the responsibility of the state. Here we only take into account taxes, which is important, but there is also an increase in regulation in certain areas, eg energy savings certificates (energy suppliers must save energy, which is positive, but at a cost) that fuel distributors will pass the price.

Finally, we must not forget that in the last weeks since the beginning of October 2018 oil prices fell sharply and that on January 1, 2019, we will have a new tax increase of over 6.5 cents per liter for diesel and another 2.9 cents for petrol.

What about the remaining 20%? How does this increase in prices differ between different items, from raw material to tax and borders?

As mentioned above, 20% is not necessarily 20% depending on whether you are looking at diesel or petrol and depending on the selected reference period.

In all cases, however, what is not the rise in oil prices are taxes and vice versa. These are really two main items and far into the crash of fuel prices on the pumps. Today, the weight of taxes (including VAT) in the price of diesel and super-unleaded 95 is about 60%, while the price of oil and petroleum products on international markets is 30% or less. This means that the share of industrial boundaries and costs (purification of crude oil for fuel production and fuel distribution) only goes in the order of 10% in pump prices. That is no reason to increase fuel for a year.

If we take the figures (official) I mentioned above about fuel price evolution since the beginning of October 2017, ie over a period of 11 months, the increase in taxes explains about 30% and 20% this increase for diesel and unleaded 95. However, indicated in response to your first question, the first ten months of 2018, the liability for taxes has overcome.

Who are these users? Do you have new numbers?

The main winner of rising fuel prices since October 2017 is the French state. For this, the tax is on the rise on January 1, 2018 (+7.6 cents per liter for diesel and +3.9 cents for gasoline) and January 1, 2019, as indicated above. Oil exporting countries, of course, had the benefits of rising oil prices, which largely explains fuel prices. The rise in the price of crude oil is also very positive for the profits of oil companies. The difference between these three categories of actors is that the French state is directly benefiting from rising fuel prices, as these are very heavily taxed products, while oil and petroleum companies are benefiting from the increase. raw prices. Indeed, there is no particular increase in the margins of the fuel distribution industry in France.

If the rise in fuel prices ultimately led to a fall in consumption, it would become less attractive to the state as taxes are charged on the amount spent. Less volume, less tax revenue. This is also one of the stated goals of this government and precedent in recent years to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels in France. In the period from 1 October 2017 to 30 September 2018, the consumption of road fuels in France fell by 1,7% compared to the period October 2016 / September 2017. For now there is a very small drop because many people do not actually have other choices they consider acceptable.

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