This week, a bunch of breeders produced quarterly figures, and the clear winner has so far looked like Salmar.
"This neighborhood is a bit mixed," says Tore Tønseth marine food analyst at Sparebank1 markets at E24.
– Which companies are doing well?
"Especially Salmar, who had an incredibly strong quarter," he says.
What most analysts look at in aquaculture companies is what is called operational EBIT, a figure that gives a picture of business operations before adjusting to changes in biomass (fish) values.
Among the companies that in the third quarter of this year brought stronger operational ebline than last year were Marine Harvest and Salmar.
On the other hand, the Bakkafrost, Norway's Royal Salmon, Grieg Seafood, Austevoll Seafood, Lerøy Seafood and NTS decreased (see table at the bottom of the case).
Measured according to analyst expectations, Lerøy Seafood and Bakkafrost were disappointed with operating ebit, while Marine Harvest and especially Salmar exceeded expectations.
Salmar has reduced costs in central Norway at a very low level, Tønseth points out.
"After a demanding gap in 2015-16 with consequent high costs, they have now reduced to around NOK 32 in manufacturing costs in Central Norway, where you have to go back several years to find a job," he says.
Strong figures on Friday raised Salmar's share by 8.5 percent a day. Thus, the price of shares has more than doubled to this year, from 246 to 498 kronor.
Disappointed by growth
Several stocks also fell after the quarterly reports after a significant increase this year. One of the stalemate shares is Norway's royal salmon.
– Royal Salmon Norway disappointed with growth. The market expected a projection of 44,000 tons next year, but the company carried 40,000 tons. The stock also dropped by 15 percent, according to Tønseth.
The number of companies expects higher returns next year than this year (see table), but demand also grows.
"An individual has expanded into guidelines, but overall, companies show volume for the next year, which is more than the Kontali analysis, for example," says Tønseth.
– The volumes for 2019 indicate a drop in prices or a moderate increase in prices. There are fish available, and I think it's enough that next year there is no balance between supply and demand, "he says.
Sparebank1 Markets has a salmon price estimate for the next year of NOK 62, while prices in Fishpool will be NOK 64 in 2019.
These are estimates for the volume companies this year and next year:
|party||Volume 2018||Volume 2019|
|Maritime harvest||380,000 tons||430,000 tons|
|Bakkafrost||46,000 tons||53,000 tons|
|Norway Royal Salmon||36,000 tons||40,000 tons|
|Grieg Seeds of the sea||75,000 tons||82,000 tons|
|Lerøy seafood (salmon and trout)||179,000 tons||190,000 tons|
|Salmar||143,000 tons||145,000 tons|
Source: Quarterly Reports and Presentations of the Company
Waiting for recovery
The Norwegian and international manufacturers so far claimed that next year there will be more fish in the market.
Until now, they show a growth of 5.1 percent in Norway next year, something more than what we expect and consensus. Most of them are based on four percent growth next year, says Tønseth.
These companies account for about half of Norwegian production volumes, analysts point out.
"The listed companies globally estimated a 9.2 percent growth in the next year," says Tønseth.
– It does about a third of world production, so it does not give a complete picture. However, this figure suggests a slightly higher growth than the expected market, which is 4-5 percent of global production growth in 2019. Our estimate is 5.2 percent, he says.
|Company (Currency)||Profit after taxation Q3. 2018||Waiting for res. after taxing the 3rd quarter. 2018 (SME / TDN)||Crisp. after taxing the 3rd quarter. 2017||Operational Ebit 3. kv. 2018||She waited operatively
ebit, 3rd quarter 2018
|Operational Ebit 3. kv. 2017|
|Maritime harvest (euro)||53.9 ml.||154 ml.||150.9 ml.||207.1 ml.||205 ml.||194.2 ml.|
|Bakkafrost (DKK)||355.9 ml.||139 ml.||56.2 ml.||142.4 ml.||190 ml.||212.2 ml.|
|Norwegian Royal Salmon (NOK)||141.6 ml.||–||175.5 ml.||35.5 ml.||–||192.4 ml.|
|Grizzly Seafood (NOK)||220.4 ml.||–||182.5 ml.||159.7 ml.||–||229.3 ml.|
|Austevoll Seafood (NOK)||303.2 ml.||–||171.2 ml.||770.7 ml.||–||822 ml.|
|Lerøy Seafood (NOK)||528.6 ml.||554 ml.||302.7 ml.||660.1 ml.||737 ml.||861.3 ml.|
|NTS (NOK)||96.5 ml.||–||86.0 ml.||84.7 ml.||–||131.7 million.|
|Salmar (NOK)||922.2 ml.||590 ml.||968.5 ml.||939.1 ml.||752 ml.||801.3 ml.|