Thursday , March 4 2021

Forecast Commission: Import-Based Consumption Reduction Adjusts GDP Forecast for 2018



The National Strategy and Forecasting Commission (CNSP) estimates the decline in final consumption spending on Friday, to 5.1%, from 5.4% in July.


Membership Image Board Forecast: Consumer Decrease Most Import-Oriented, Adjusts GDP Forecast for 2018

Forecast Commission: Import-Based Consumption Reduction Adjusts GDP Forecast for 2018

In the next two years, however, new estimates have slightly increased: up to 5.7% next year, from 5.6% in July and 5.5% in 2020 to 5.3% earlier,

At the same time, the forecast on which the executive authority estimates the budget for 2021 and 2022 remained the same, ie 4.9% and 4.8%. Last year's final consumption increased by 8.4% over the previous year, with the largest contribution to the growth of the economy.

At the same time, real consumption of households is estimated to be 5.4% this year, from 5.5% in July, followed by a return to 6% in 2019 from 5.8%, to 5.7% % in 2020, with 5.6%. Between 2021 and 2022, it stabilized at 5.1%, from 5.2% in July and 5%.

In addition, the actual collective spending of government this year falls to 3%, from 4%, but in 2019 and 2010 remains at the estimated level of 3%. The current forecast is more optimistic for 2021, to 2.5%, from 2% earlier, but kept at the same level of 2022 to 2%.

However, it is anticipated that the current account deficit will grow to 3.5 percent at the end of this year, compared with 3.1 percent in July, to 3.2 percent at the end of next year, with growth of 2.8 percent to 2, 9% from 2.6% in 2020 to 2.6% from 2.3% in 2021 and 2.4% from 2.1% in 2022.

Instead, the CNSP kept its inflation rate forecast: by the end of this year, by the end of next year to 3.5%, at the end of 2.8%, by the end of 2020 to 2.5%, by the end of 2021 to 2.3. and by the end of 2022 to 2.2%.

The Commission also valued the same levels for the average euro exchange rate: 4.65 lei this year, 4.62 lei next year, 4.60 lei in 2020, 4.58 lei in 2021 and 4.56 lei in 2022.

The Romanian economy will grow by 4.5% this year, according to the autumn projection published Friday at CNSP, a reduction of 1 percentage point from 5.5% in July. However, the nominal gross domestic product (nominal GDP) is estimated at 949.6 billion lei, an increase of almost 0.49% compared to the July projection. Thus, the Government of Romania has room for reducing the budget deficit by 3%.

In addition, under these conditions GDP per capita is expected to rise: to 48,760 lei this year, with 48,524 lei in July; up to 52,808 lei for the next year, from 52,550 lei; to 57,194 lei in 2020, from 56,911 lei; to 61,572 lei in 2021, from 61,296 lei; to 66.199 lei for 2022, from 65.928 lei.


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