Vladimir Rozhankovsky, LIFA, an expert at the International Financial Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta:
– Of course, the main topic of Friday will be the start of the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires. The status of the G20 is growing again with the escalation of trade wars and the understanding that many countries will take a kind of response.
The main topics that market analysts of all countries under the microscope need to review are Trump's meeting with Xi. It is scheduled for November 30 and will gather a large audience of remote viewers around the world.
Talking about the upcoming week, his most important event will be the OPEC + meeting that will take place on December 6th. There are preconditions for the members of the cartel to discuss the possibility of further reduction in production in 2019. Years.
Saudi Arabia has recently cited without precedent the increase of "black gold" production in the country at 10.7 million barrels per day. The United States increased production at a record level of 11.45 million barrels a day. All this points to the over-bid.
If on December 6 at the OPEC summit meeting + decides (explicitly or secretly, not to irritate Trump) to reduce production in quantities of more than a million barrels a day, then oil will probably return to growth. Such a scenario would have a positive impact on Russian rubbish.
In general, we have to prepare for the fact that December for several reasons is usually not the best time for the Russian currency. The dollar is cyclically strengthened by the increased activity of online commerce in the eve of the new year.
The most spectacular example is November and December 2014, when the euro and the dollar gained momentum and reached historical peaks. However, this year's main intrigue is not in the seasonal cyclical nature of the ruble, but in the bearish bearish trend and the recently announced central bank plans to continue to buy dollars at MOSEX. These two factors are so significant that even new sanctions are partly overshadowed.
If the central bank still does not dare to continue purchasing currency for the Ministry of Finance, then it will fall, with the positive outcome of the OPEC Summit +, and can be significantly strengthened (to $ 62-63 per dollar).
Since the euro ruble-dollar-euro is still the weakest in the first three currencies because of the continuation of the "quantitative easing" of the European Central Bank, the rise in euro-dollar rubbing can be more significant in such a scenario. And the domestic currency will strengthen to 73.20-73.50.
If the CBR continues to broadcast the idea of continuing to buy currencies from January 15, the laundry will accelerate the fall already next week: people will start cash stocks in return. Against the dollar, it may fall back to the level of 68-69. The goal that is matched with the euro with this development – 79.50.
Most likely, the central bank will decide to buy money at its next meeting on December 14th. In addition, an expanded volume of external debt payments is expected in December, and it is expected that demand for money in the Russian Federation in December will be high in any case.
Even without the participation of the Central Bank and receiving a new part of Western sanctions, next week, with such a development, we saw a sign of 67.90 rubles per dollar.