The following are five major topics that will probably dominate by thinking about investors and marketers next week and stories about them at Reuters.
1 / POWELL AND PAYROLLS
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sent the stock to grow as it appears to signal that the three-year cycle of raising interest rates will be close to peak. It could be said that Powell's comments misread the vigorous markets; if so, they have another chance to hear it on December 5th when they testify about the congressional Joint Economic Committee.
Powell will talk about two days before the employment data comes in November. His last speech did not point to that. That is how the report will be crucial, given unemployment at the 49-year level, and employers increase their salaries.
Markets will be specifically aligned with salaries, which record the highest annual profit in 9-1 / 2 in October. If 3.1 percent gets the average hourly earnings, it will look good enough for inflation to keep the racing track untouched at a meeting of 18-19. December.
– US growth is growing; annual salary increase since 2009
– Fed's Powell, in apparent shifts, says the rate is close to neutral
Unemployment in the United States: https://tmsnrt.rs/2Q3YcZy
2 / TRUMP CARD
With a Chinese factory that is now the most powerful for more than two years, Beijing's high stakes is on whether US President Donald Trump will continue to raise tariffs on Chinese imports after the $ 250 billion of taxable goods. Markets, hoping to get closer to the G20 summit in Argentina, are still skeptical of the peace deal. However, given Trump's difficult trading position and President Xi Jinping's long-term prospects of preventing US demands for the opening of the Chinese economy, even a temporary interruption of fire between the sides will be welcomed.
Since the trading war began in March, Chinese stocks lost more than 20 percent, and the economy has obviously felt pain. Unless the customs tariff focuses on a dinner at the G20, Beijing may have to push more incentives – but it has reduced the reserve ratio of banks, but the interest rate, the first in three years, might be close.
– Trade deal possible on G20, but Chinese paper says US must be "fair minded" – US trade restrictions hit $ 369 billion in Chinese exports – Monitoring Group – Heavy credit growth increases likelihood of first Chinese reserves in years L4N1XQ22W
Trade tensions in Chinese markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2Q6OFBn
3 / DAS AUTO
This weekend, the world will watch the tango G20 in Argentina, but the German car companies are waiting for waltzers in Washington as the top directors of Volkswagen (DE :), BMW and Daimler set off for the White House next week.
They hope to stop additional tariffs on German vehicles, following fresh threats from President Trump to plunder more taxes on vehicles that have been contracted to the EU. American tariffs. Combined with the influence of the Chinese economic slowdown, it will point out the bad news of European car makers, whose earnings have already been hit by stricter regulations.
But a 25-percent car tariff could also reduce economic growth in the eurozone by 2019 by 40 basis points to 1.2-1.3 percent, Barclays (LON 🙂 calculates.
Shares of the European car sector have so far fallen by almost 25 percent this year, and the negative outcome in Washington will show hope for any withdrawal at the end of the year.
– What if Trump raises car import tariffs to 25 percent?
-Conical sneezes could make Europe a nasty flu
– World leaders have called for summit summits in arguably disputed disputes
Car earnings on November 30: https://tmsnrt.rs/2RuvrlO
4 / DAY OF PRESIDA
He started voting. There is now a possibility that voting might stop Brexit.
Prospects Complicated Against British Prime Minister Therese It is possible to get parliament on December 11 for its draft of the Brexit Agreement; members of their own Conservative Party, the opposition and the Northern Ireland Party supporting the minority government in May are opposed.
Some Britons hope that the rejection of parliament will open the door to another referendum in Brexit to avoid the risk of jobless crashes. Signs of public support have risen to reverse Brexit's vote since June 2016, and the Italian opposition finance spokesman backed the second referendum.
Moreover, on December 4, a lawyer of the European Court of Justice will give his opinion on whether Britain can lift its notice of withdrawal from the EU without the consent of the other 27 states. Scottish politicians behind the ECJ case hope that ruling will open their way for a second referendum.
How will the markets react? Everyone guesses. If it is not interpreted by the parliament as a slide by non-agreement, the pound may override. But if another referendum – and the rest of the outcome – becomes an option, the opposite is likely.
– UK May says it focuses on Brexit's work, not B
– The worst case of Brexit is worse than the global financial crisis, warns Bank of England
– British work could return the possibility of voting for another Brexit, nL9N1U5015
– EU Judicial Adviser to issue an opinion on Brexit's reversibility
The recent sterling fell slightly against the vote of Brexit: https://tmsnrt.rs/2R5kMhb
5 / ENTER INPUT
have just been the worst month for more than 10 years, in November they recorded more than 20 percent. Following the loss of about 10 percent in October. With the growth of world growth, supply surpasses demand. So, when the OPEC Club meets in Vienna 6-7. December, the stakes could not be bigger.
With WTI, rising below $ 50 per barrel, and now under $ 60, it would seem that OPEC has been cut to reduce production and re-raise prices. But it's not that simple.
For one, US President Trump will not be happy. Having repeatedly called for lower oil prices, he got his wish, so any action to raise could cause the White House's political reaction. Secondly, the desire and ability of Saudi Arabia to reduce production is severely constrained because of its budget needs and because the higher oil prices increase competition from the American slate. And other OPEC and non-OPEC countries are still misleading at the idea of cutting production. Look at this space.
– The Saudi Minister of Energy goes to OPEC with a weak hand: Kemp
– Saudi Arabia wants a unique advantage over oil production; Russia and Nigeria remain
– Oil falls because high stock surpassed probable OPEC breaks
Oil production – the first 3 manufacturers: https://tmsnrt.rs/2Q6ZS4P