manpowergroup versus Q4 2019 Overview Employment Review Net Employment Outlook + 6% which in Turkey. The strongest employment plans are expressed in the Aegean region and in the Manufacturing sector.
6 STANDING DOWN
A review of the ManpowerGroup employment survey for the fourth quarter of 2019 revealed that Turkish employers were wary of job opportunities for October-December. According to the results of interviews conducted in a sample of 1,001 persons, 15% of employers expect an increase in employment in the fourth quarter of 2019, while 13% expect a decrease and 71% predict that there will be no change. Seasonally adjusted employment prospects represent + 6%. Employment expectations decreased by 2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and decreased by 6 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
INCREASES IN THE FOURTH DEPARTMENT OF THE SECTOR
Employment growth is expected in the next quarter in four of five regions and ten of eleven sectors. Compared to the previous quarter, employment expectations are rising in two out of five regions and four out of eleven sectors. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, employment prospects are weak in four out of five regions and nine out of eleven sectors.
"POSITIVE AND FOOTBALL TABLE"
manpowergroup Turkey Managing Director Feyzin Narlı, Turkey, said in the fourth quarter of Outlook 2019 recruitment: "Outlook's net recruitment in the fourth quarter is 6% due to seasonally adjusted data, which is quite positive and a promising statement. We believe that these results come from a period of choice and fluctuation in the exchange rate. Compared to the previous period, we see that the construction sector recorded the highest growth. This increase may be due to new loan options and low home loan rates. The second projected increase in results is reported in the restaurant and hotel sectors. We can say that this increase is due to the increase in seasonal employment of employers by the sector. "
THE EXPECTATION OF CONSTRUCTION HAS NOT CHANGED
The manufacturing sector was a sector where employers reported strong employment expectations, followed by agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing, and pharmacy. The electricity, gas and water sectors, public and social services, and restaurants and hospitality followed. However, employers in the construction sector predict that there will be no change in the employment rate in the next quarter.
|sector||MVA Employment prospects (%)|
|Agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing||12|
|Electricity, gas and water services||7|
|Finance, insurance, real estate and corporate services||5|
|Public and social services||6|
|Management of restaurants and hotels||6|
|Transportation, storage and connections||1|
|Wholesale and retail trade||1|
Compared to the third quarter of 2019, employment expectations fall in seven of the 11 sectors. The most significant increase was recorded in the public and social services sector with 11%. Employers from finance, insurance, real estate and corporate services and pharmaceuticals report a drop of 6 percent and 5 percent respectively. Four sectors are on the rise, especially the construction sector with 9 points and the manufacturing sector with 5 percent.
Employment expectations are expected to decrease in nine sectors compared to the same period last year. The wholesale and retail sector saw a 15 percent decline, while employers in the public and social services sector saw a nine percent decline. The mining sector is projected to decline by 8 percentage points and the finance, insurance, real estate and corporate services sectors to decline by 7 percentage points. However, an increase of 9 percent and 4 percent, respectively, is expected in the restaurant, hotel and pharmacy sectors, respectively.
BLACK SEA IS IMPOSSIBLE
In four of the five regions, employers expect the number of employees to increase over the next quarter. The Aegean region is estimated to host the strongest employment market this quarter. Employers in Marmara, Mediterranean and Central Anatolia forecast positive employment, while the Black Sea region reports unstable employment plans.
|region||MVA employment prospects (%)|
Compared to the previous quarter, two out of five regions reported an increase in employment plans. Employers in central Anatolia saw a decline of 6 percentage points, while Aegean employers reported a moderate increase of 4 percent. Employment plans in other regions are expected to be similar to the previous quarter.
Compared to the same period last year, employment expectations fell in four of the five regions. The Black Sea recorded a significant drop of 14 percentage points, while the Central Anatolia and Marble regions recorded a decrease of 5 and 8 points respectively. Employers in the Aegean region state that their employment plans will not change compared to the fourth quarter of 2018.
LARGE EXPECTATIONS OF WORKERS LARGE
In three of the four business ladder categories, employers expect employment growth in the fourth quarter of 2019. The largest employment plans are reported by large employers with seasonally adjusted + 20% job prospects, while the outlook for medium-sized enterprises remains at + 8% and for small employers at + 4%. But employers on a micro scale – with a 1% prospect – plan to act with caution.
Compared to the previous quarter, there was no change in the employment prospects of micro and large employers; Medium-sized enterprises' expectations fall by 3 percentage points. Small business employers, on the other hand, plan to keep their employment plans unchanged.
Compared to the same period last year, employment opportunities weakened in three of the four business ladder categories. Small employers report a fall of 9 percentage points, while medium and micro employers fall by 7 and 3 percent respectively. The large employment prospects of large employers remain unchanged.