Oil revenues will fall in 2019, when demand slows down
Singapore – agencies
LONDON (Reuters) – Analysts in this sector are increasingly pessimistic about the possibility of rising prices next year, given that demand is cloudy because the consumables run at a dangerous speed, though the markets expect OPEC to cut production.
A poll of 38 economists and analysts predicts that the average world reference crude oil average would be $ 74.50 per barrel in 2019, compared to $ 76.88 in last month's forecast.
The survey shows that the average Brent crude oil price would be $ 73.20 per barrel in 2018, which is largely in line with the average crude price from the beginning of the year to $ 73 per barrel.
"In the first half of next year, we expect increased pressure on oil prices due to the decline in OPEC production," said Adria Moron Salmonon, an economist at Kaixa Bank Research."He said.
"After that, we expect a downturn due to increased oil production in the United States during the second half, as bottlenecks disappear and global growth slows down."He said.
Of 32 respondents in October and November 16 reduced their forecasts for Brent's average in 2019.
The Organization of Oil Exporters (OPEC) and Russia, together with other producers, will meet in Vienna on December 6 and 7 to try to support oil prices, which have fallen by more than 30 percent from a four-year high $ 86.74 per barrel at the beginning of October..
Analysts said the cartel could announce a reduction in production of 1-1.4 million bpd.
"Today oil is surely flushed, so OPEC will make a decision to reduce production in December," said Frank Schleinberger, research manager at LBW..
"The recent drop in oil prices was strong, and I think members who are not members of OPEC have agreed to freeze production or join the cut."He said.
Slowing global economy could reduce global demand growth next year, while non-OPEC production is expected to grow at a record rhythm.
The lowest forecast for Brent was $ 57 for barel, while ABN Amro and Raymond James had the highest expectations of $ 90.
Analysts have announced that the US decision to grant exemptions from Iranian crude oil purchases affected by sanctions on energy exports is not a market dynamics that is already under pressure to boost supply from the top three producers – the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
"The blasphemy of US sanctions on Iran has made the market more focused on supply," said Constantinos Venetis, an economist from TSRL Research."He said.
Some analysts say that non-OPEC production could rise by 1.5 to 2.2 million bpd in 2019, led by American rock oil.
The survey showed expectations for American lacquer raw materials on average $ 67.45 per barrel in 2019, compared to $ 70.15 in the previous poll. The average crude oil price was around $ 66.40 per barrel since the beginning of the year.
In addition to the potentially shadowing was the recovery of production in Nigeria and Libya, two of which were excluded from the previous cuts due to fall production as a result of riots.
At the same time, oil demand is expected to rise between 0.9 and 1.5 million bpd in 2019, compared to 1.1 to 1.5 million barrels per day in forecasts in the previous month.