For Russia, the results of the shadow revolution will be scary.
Many have already noticed unexpected changes in the global economy, particularly in the oil market. Last month, oil prices fell from $ 86.72 to $ 58.42 per barrel. In the last 6 months, the prices of indicative future world economies fell: aluminum (European premium) by 34.98%, wood by 44.03%, gasoline by 36.20%, pig production by 24.22%. All this tells us about the serious problems in the global economy and the growing global economic crisis.
But now I want to draw your attention to changes in the functioning of the global economy. As you recall, oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of almost all goods and services in the world. Namely, the price of oil can be called a cumulative cumulative indicator of growth or decline in the global economy. In the last 45 years, the situation has evolved in a world where a group of oil-producing countries has influenced the development of the world economy. Oil producers have agreed, reduced production and controlled price increases, as well as the resource of political influence on oil consumers in the country and the global economy as a whole. That was the case, but the moment came when the countries that produced the oil lost not only the possibility of political influence but also the ability to regulate the prices of their products.
On February 23, 2015, I published an article describing the effect of the American slate pole. At that point she wondered what could be the growth of shredding shale in the United States? For me the answer was quite simple: "In the first phase, partial energy independence, then the ability to influence prices on the international energy market and ultimately on economic growth. There are three global manufacturing areas in the world: North America, Europe, Asia, which consume large amounts of oil and energy: for example, US oil consumption alone is 19 million a day, while world oil production in the US amounted to 90.7 million barrels per day in 2013. Now suppose that the United States takes the benchmark for partial energy independence through the use of deposits This means that the country refuses to consume some of the imported oil, which means that the world's oil market is creating surplus supplies – in the amount that has been rejected in the United States. At the same time, the number of oil producers remains the same, no one is ready to reduce production because this will reduce your market share. You can be sure that none of the manufacturers will reduce production for d As sugar production is on the rise, additional supply is generated on the world market. This will reduce the price of oil.
What is it for the US and what is the map? Blessed, vast! It's not just economically but politically. Imagine that oil prices return to $ 100 per barrel. All oil forces are satisfied, budgets are filled with petrodollars. Meanwhile, flaming projects are actively developing and delivering profits (which is very important, there is no place in the western economic culture to stop developing, ie shadow projects invest the same superprofit in increasing its competitiveness compared to classical production). High world oil prices make it profitable to use slate deposits in the country and increase production, trying to ignore the stock of imports. This will result in the creation of surplus oil on the market.
If the world economy does not increase spending, the price again falls. What's next?! Prices drop to critical values for the shrimp industry, the United States continues to buy imports at a lower price than shrimp deposits. Even in this case, the US economy continues to be economically and politically positive. Cheap oil in the presence of developed economic structure and large sales market is economic growth due to the release of investment. Cheap oil makes salespeople adaptable to heavy environmental conditions, which increases efficiency and profitability of production. Political advantage will be the possibility of price impacts on energy markets. Even with bankruptcy of all US slate oil producers, we will not see the collapse of this industry. "
So what do we see in the oil market today? At the end of November 2018, the United States spent 11.05 million barrels a day on average, Saudi Arabia – 10.489 million barrels of oil a day (according to rumor, by the end of November 2018, SA will allocate 11.3 million barrels per day), while Russia – 10, 77 million barrels of oil per day (Source) In February 2015, the amount of US crude oil production amounted to 5,841,980 barrels per day. By the end of November 2018, US sugar production reached 7,943,460 barrels per day. (Oil prices fell from $ 86.72 to $ 58.42 per barrel, and OPEC + will again negotiate a reduction in oil production, hoping to reinvent its will in the world.
But in the oil market there is a player who does not want to negotiate, reducing production, but he wants to compete! As you may have thought, this is the USA. Many people can say that, and what's wrong with not cutting oil production? In this case there is a malfunction of the manipulation scheme, through which oil producers impose the necessary level of prices in the world. In order to be unfounded, we simply present two possibilities for the development of future events.
OPEC + reduces oil production, and all participants are honestly observing the amount of production and sales. As a result, the market creates a lost volume of demand for the price (n)
which will likely satisfy the US oil producers who are not involved in the price of the deal.
OPEC + will not cut production, and all participants will start competing for markets and customers, increasing production or lowering prices or both. The United States, of course, will also have its competitive contribution. As a result, it will only lead to lower prices and survival of the most powerful oil producers.
As you can see, any attempt to influence OPEC + will not lead to the desired result in conditions where the US is not ready to regulate oil production and prices. The result for the world is one: the dictates of oil producers used to manipulating the market become a thing of the past. For Russia, the results of these processes look very terrible!
On December 6, OPEC + meets in Vienna to develop a production strategy for 2019. At the same time Donald's trumpet calls on Saudi Arabia to refrain from cutting production and looking forward to lower oil prices. Donald Trump's quote from Twitter: "It's great that oil prices drop (thank you, President T)." The Kremlin believed and, I believe, still believes that it will agree with Donald Trump at the margins of the G20 Summit in Argentina. But faith, as it is well-known, "dies for the last time."
Ivan Čumakov, "Eho Moskve"