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Silence and gold from Investing.com



© Reuters.

Investing.com – World markets continue to grow, up to 20 hours in Moscow time, 500 has added 0.9%, reaching the level since October 26 last year, ie it has almost recovered the losses of the last long recession. Boeing shares (NYSE 🙂 rose 5.2% to serious news: sales and profits for 2108 significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts, and the company also said that in 2019 it plans to supply 900 commercial aircraft against 806 in 2019. Apple (NASDAQ:) rose 4.3 percent after reporting a sharp increase in service sales, and CEO Tim Cook said trade tensions between the US and China were alleviating.

However, where Apple's manager has taken such information, it is not clear: The latest news on the US-Chinese issue was the introduction of official allegations against Huawei in the United States, which can hardly contribute to "reducing tensions."

Growth in the market is partly a result of constant expectations of mitigating rhetoric after the Fed's present meeting. Economic news is not good: According to ADP, the number of US non-agricultural employees in December increased by 213,000 compared to the 180.9-year forecast. and as a consequence – a growing pressure on the labor market. At the same time, real estate sales declined, the index of incomplete sales in December dropped by 2.2%, with the expected growth of 0.8%, and fell for the third consecutive month. Many experts point out that the Fed is in deadlock: the continued tightening of monetary policy will seriously damage the market and may not be beneficial to the economy as a whole. At the same time, refusal to raise rates will look like recognizing the problem in the economy and giving up the pressure of American leadership, that is, can jeopardize the image of an independent regulator – and worse than not raising rates at the wrong time. However, it would not be happening, but the accident helped: due to government shaddaun, many economic reports come with delay, and the Fed leadership has a formal reason to stay silent.

Oil has risen due to the news that US stocks of oil rose last year by just 0.9 million barrels, with a forecast of 3.1 million barrels. The fact that this is still growing does not disturb anyone. True, the fact that petrol reserves in the country fell by 2.24 million barrels, with a growth forecast of 2.8 million, this is the first drop in the last nine weeks, which is really encouraging.

The second growth factor is the continuation of the development of the Venezuelan crisis. Today, the authorities have arrested President Juana Guayda's bills, which he declared to the president, and banned his departure abroad – an obvious response to the right to have the government and central bank of Venezuela's assets in the accounts of US banks. Up to 20.40 per barrel time in Moscow rose by 1.8% to $ 62.3.

This situation seems to be extremely positive for the Russian economy. Only there, apart from private funds (to the extent that private funds can be taken into account, for example, Rosneft funds (MCX :)), some $ 17 billion in debt for government supplies, mostly weapons, are stuck. And although experts often explain that "in fact, this weapon is still written off, and the actual number should be divided by 20", but it is still uncomfortable. Earlier, Russia's Deputy Finance Minister Sergey Storchak admitted that perhaps getting debt from Venezuela could be difficult. Even today, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak afterwards admitted that Russian companies may have problems.

Today, Bloomberg, referring to two sources, reported that Russian Boeing was located at Caracas Airport, where the authorities of the Venezuelan central bank intend to export 20 tons of gold worth about $ 840 million, or around one-fifth of the gold reserves of the country. If this message is true and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro loses power struggle, then it is no surprise that Russia and the Russian companies may have problems facing the country's new leadership. It should be noted that the attempt to evacuate gold reserves a rather strong hint of Maduro's readiness for such an outcome. The Venezuelan government official denied that the plane was at the airport, although there was information about his flight on the FlightRadar website. The Russian authorities denied participation in the appearance of the aircraft. Obviously, for someone else in Russia, it turned out that Venezuelan money was more expensive than Russian debts. However, believing that someone from Russia in the current situation decided to drive a Venecuel plane without the knowledge of Russian authorities is getting harder.

Meanwhile, the Russian market, like weeds, continues to grow on everything that is happening. Rubbish index MosBirzhi updated the historical maximum – 2513.77 p., And increased by 0.54% by the end of the day. The price index strengthened by 0.64%. So when the rubbish starts weakening, the MosBirzy index will still have a big margin to set new records.

Actually, the lingerie stubbornly searches under the 66th mark. Today, until 19:00 Moscow time, the dollar fell in price to 13 kopecks. to 65.92 rubles. In addition to the above, in favor of the underwear – dollar weakness, rising oil prices and other things is still a seasonal factor. "The seasonal situation remains, in the first quarter the market has fallen, import falls, and export revenues, whose peak at the end of the year, continue to flow – that is, currencies are more than the market can digest. By April-May it will end. If nothing happens to the pattern of oil and sanctions, then February may probably be peaceful, this trend will continue, "says Oleg Solntsev, the leading expert at the Macroeconomic Analysis Center and short-term forecasts.

On the background of continued interest in lingerie, the Ministry of Finance has put in a full OFZ worth 25 billion rubles. – however, it reduced the volume of supply, apparently considering that the previous attempt to allocate 35 billion rubles at once. was not successful. "We put on the market, good demand, mostly buy local investors, there is great demand, in the midst of strong lingerie, the expected pause at interest rates from FED and the preservation of the interests of global investors in developing countries. The non-resident's activity is now lower because it is more painful for sanctions, "says senior analyst BCS Sergey Suverov. "This could take several weeks, and it's difficult to make plans later, since Russian activity in the Venezuelan conflict can speed up the development of the theme with sanctions."

(Text was prepared by Daniel Zhelobanov)


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