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Howard Marks – How to burn market cycles (# 338)



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Credit: Peter Murphy

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Photo by Peter Murphy

"It's not what you buy, it's what you pay for."
– Howard Marks

Howard scores (@howardmarksbook) is co-chair and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, a leading investment company with over $ 120 billion in assets. He is the author of the new book Master the market cycle: get the odds on your sideand his previous book on investments, The most important thing: Uncommon sense for the thoughtful investor, was a critically acclaimed bestseller. Warren Buffett wrote of Howard Marks: "When I see Howard Marks reminders in my mail, I'm the first thing I open and read, I always learn something." Marks holds a B.S.Ec. degree from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a major in finance and a Master in Accounting and Marketing from the University of Chicago.

In this conversation, we discuss:

  • As his company was ready to capitalize on the bubble in 2008 and put huge amounts of capital to work.
  • His thoughts on understanding market cycles to make better decisions.
  • The three phases of a bull market.
  • Newsletter that reads.
  • Thoughts about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
  • Much, much more …

Studying what Howard says transcends the world of investment: it is really a study in clearer thinking. I hope you like it and learn how I did it!

Do you want to listen to another conversation with an investor whose thoughts transcend finances? – Watch my interview with Adam Robinson, who was mentor in Bobby Fischer's teenage chess and is now a global macro consultant for the world's most successful hedge funds and family offices. (Please send below or right click to download.)


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QUESTION (s) OF THE DAY: What was your favorite quote or lesson from this episode? Please let me know in the comments.

Scroll down for links and show notes …

LINKS SELECTED BY THE EPISODE

  • Connected with Howard scores:

Website | Oaktree Capital Management | chirping | LinkedIn | Facebook

  • Master the market cycle: get the odds on your side of Howard Marks
  • The most important thing: Howard Marks Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor
  • All Howard Marks memos in Oaktree
  • Other poems VI by A.E. Housman
  • The Wharton school
  • Mujo, Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy
  • Memo to: Oaktree Clients, Re: You Can not Predict. You can prepare yourself. From: Howard Marks
  • Northwestern Mutual
  • Market crash: Housing Bubble and Credit Crisis (2007-2009), Investopedia
  • 20 extraordinary things that people saw at the World & # 39; s Fair of 1964 by Amy Plitt, Mental Floss
  • Not all that matters can be counted by Garson O & # 39; Toole, Investigator Quoter
  • Fooled by Randomness: The hidden role of chance in the life and markets of Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Reminder for: Oaktree Clients, Re: Pigweed From: Howard Marks
  • A brief history of financial euphoria by John Kenneth Galbraith
  • Memo to: Oaktree Clients, Re: It's not easy From: Howard Marks
  • Citibank
  • What are FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) Actions ?, Investopedia
  • S & P 500
  • What is VIX – CBOE Volatility Index ?, Investopedia
  • Howard Marks – The Poor Man's Guide to Market Assessment by Johnny Hopkins, The Acquirer & # 39; s Multiple
  • Picking Warren Buffett & # 39; s Brain: Notes from a Novice by Tim Ferriss
  • The Warren Buffett Way by Robert G. Hagstrom
  • Bring down the house: The Inside Story of Six M.I.T. Students who took Vegas for millions of Ben Mezrich
  • Principles: Life and Work by Ray Dalio
  • Memo to: Oaktree Clients, Re: It's what comes from: Howard Marks
  • Reminder for: Oaktree Clients, Re: Risk From: Howard Marks
  • Memo to: Oaktree Clients, Re: Risk Revisited From: Howard Marks
  • Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter L. Bernstein
  • Grant & # 39; s Interest Rate Observer
  • Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom by Charles T. Munger by Charles T. Munger
  • History lessons by Will Durant and Ariel Durant
  • Factfulness: ten reasons why we are wrong about the world – and why things are better than you think of Hans Rosling, Anna Rosling Rnnlund and Ola Rosling
  • Reference capital
  • Kleiner Perkins

SHOW THE NOTES

  • Let's start with a poem by A.E. Housman. [05:49]
  • What is the mujō and how did it become part of Howard's philosophy of life? [06:53]
  • According to Howard (and an important insurance company): you can not predict it, but you can do it. [09:22]
  • How did Howard's company get ready to blow up the 2008 bubble when many others were withdrawing from the market, and how did investors reassure themselves that they would like a return to take the long view? [11:09]
  • How does anyone have the odds on their side and what did it do to make Howard turn 20 years of notes into a book? [14:40]
  • Most of us are essentially cautious or essentially aggressive. The injury is particularly good to choose when to invest? [18:13]
  • Is it possible to develop the stoic ability to recover in front of a ruthlessly floating market, or is this something with which one is born? [23:06]
  • Howard talks about the synergy of his 31-year partnership with Bruce Karsh and what everyone brings to the table. [24:35]
  • What does Howard attribute to the fact that there have never been serious discussions about this 31-year partnership? [32:14]
  • Is there a secret formula to go with the business partners through emotionally trying times? [33:03]
  • How could someone check a potential partner as a good measure before starting business with them? [34:56]
  • Howard explains why, in addition to an opinion on what will happen, people should have a vision of the likelihood that their opinion will be correct. [37:37]
  • According to Henry "Dr. Doom" Kaufman, these are two types of people who lose a lot of money. [42:36]
  • What reading does Howard recommend for people looking to expand their awareness of limited knowledge? [43:23]
  • The stupid money become smart money? [47:08]
  • Howard says that his life is rather quiet and tries to keep it that way. But what could stop this calm and what would you do to call things into question? [49:02]
  • How does Howard maintain a balance between the confidence of experience and the awareness that all knowledge is incomplete in order to act? [50:35]
  • The case to be made against stop-loss orders and other model-based investment methods. [52:50]
  • For Howard, superior judgment overcomes every process or rule. But what is true? [54:27]
  • The only simple question that Howard would have asked each investment taken into consideration. [57:44]
  • It's not what you buy, it's what you pay for. [58:17]
  • Absolute expressions to be useful in a world besieged by uncertainty and randomness – such as the stock market. [1:01:31]
  • How does Howard check the market temperature? [1:02:27]
  • The three phases of the bull market (and, on the contrary, the bear market). [1:05:27]
  • Currently, what does Howard hope and what worries him about the economy? [1:07:17]
  • Because it is important that people invest only on a level that makes them comfortable. [1:12:20]
  • The double risk of investing and the case of finding a comfortable means. [1:16:26]
  • How Howard is more in disagreement with Warren Buffett's style and strategies? [1:18:08]
  • Do the games that people play accurately determine their risk appetite for investments? [1:22:57]
  • Incorrect investment ideas that prevail and how many other intelligent people ignore the nature of cycles. [1:26:21]
  • We can not expect the market – or life in general – to meet our needs or desires. Patience is essential. [1:29:20]
  • The lessons that Howard learned from financial historian Peter Bernstein. [1:31:21]
  • Newsletter, editorialists, economists or writers that Howard finds excited to read these days. [1:35:19]
  • The Howard book is reading now and recommends. [1:38:15]
  • What is Howard's opinion on cryptocurrency and how do we measure its intrinsic value? [1:40:46]
  • Growth or venture capital investors Howard admires. [1:45:33]
  • Mental or heuristic models that Howard has used in his investment life that are particularly valuable across the board in life. [1:49:11]
  • Final thoughts. [1:51:26]

THE MENTIONED PEOPLE

Published: 25 September 2018

Please check Mentors' tribe, my latest book, which shares brief life-style tips from more than 100 world-class artists. Many of the world's top entrepreneurs, athletes, investors, poker players and artists are part of the book. The tips and strategies in Mentors' tribe I have already changed my life, and I hope the same for you. Click here for an example chapter and all the details About 90% of guests have never appeared on my podcast.

Who was interviewed? Here is a very partial list: technical icons (founders of Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Craigslist, Pinterest, Spotify, Salesforce, Dropbox and more), Jimmy Fallon, Arianna Huffington, Brandon Stanton (Humans of New York), Lord Rabbi Jonathan Sacks, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Ben Stiller, Maurice Ashley (first African American Grand Master of chess), Brené Brown (researcher and bestseller author), Rick Rubin (legendary music producer), Temple Grandin (animal behavior expert and activist for autism), Franklin Leonard (The blacklist), Dara Torres (12 times Olympic medal in swimming), David Lynch (director), Kelly Slater (surf legend), Bozoma Saint John (Beats / Apple / Uber), Lewis Cantley ( famous cancer researcher), Maria Sharapova, Chris Anderson (curator of TED), Terry Crews, Greg Norman (icon of golf), Vitalik Buterin (creator of Ethereum) and almost another 100. Check everything by clicking here.


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